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Is Musk's Robotaxi Coming? Tesla Between Announcements, Autonomy, and Sales Crisis
In July, Musk wants to make a new attempt. In Houston, Texas, about 20 so-called "Cybercabs" are supposed to start their operation – electric, driverless, futuristic. At least that's the announcement. The schedule seems ambitious, if not unrealistic. This is because the U.S. traffic safety agency NHTSA expresses significant safety concerns about Tesla's autonomous systems. There was also discontent that Tesla removed those NHTSA employees who were responsible for overseeing autonomous driving in the spring.
A Growing Backlog
The competition has long since created facts. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's parent company Alphabet, conducts around 250,000 rides weekly – regulated and in real operation. Tesla, on the other hand, has not brought an autonomous product to market maturity for years. The software "Full Self Driving" remains in the testing phase, despite repeated announcements.
Meanwhile, the sales problems are intensifying. Particularly in Europe, sales figures have recently plummeted significantly. In Germany, Tesla recorded a decline of 45 percent in April 2025, with only 885 vehicles sold. In Scandinavia, the decrease was even more drastic: minus 81 percent in Sweden, 74 percent in the Netherlands, and 67 percent in Denmark. The formerly popular Model Y has lost its market leadership. Competitors from China, such as BYD and MG, are increasingly gaining market share.
Cybertruck and Optimus as Risk Factors
Not only the robotaxi project raises questions. Other ambitious ventures are also stalling. The Cybertruck, introduced with great PR effort, is becoming a burden. Recalls due to technical deficiencies, including acceleration problems and quality defects, are forcing Tesla to make improvements. Production could be delayed for months.
Parallel to this, the establishment of the robotics program "Optimus" is underway, with which Musk wants to transform Tesla into a robotics company. However, setbacks are also accumulating here. Recently, Milan Kovac, head of Optimus development, left the company. Kovac emphasized that his departure was for personal reasons, and his confidence in Tesla remains unbroken. Nevertheless, his departure comes at a critical phase: Tesla still plans to produce thousands of humanoid robots in 2025. Whether this is realistic remains open—especially since external factors like China's export restrictions on rare earths and magnets make the endeavor more difficult.
Between Technology and Tactics
Musk's reasoning is clear: autonomy and robotics are to be the future pillars of the company.
“The only things that matter in the long run are autonomy and Optimus,” he said in May to CNBC.
Bloomberg reports that Autopilot chief Ashok Elluswamy is taking over leadership of the Optimus program.
Meanwhile, Musk is coming under increasing political pressure. His closeness to right-wing conspiracy theories, public appearances on the platform X (formerly Twitter), and a dispute with Donald Trump are damaging his image – both in Europe and the USA. Even in conservative circles, he is losing support.
Market Shift Fails to Materialize
Nevertheless, Tesla remains optimistic. The next generation of the Model Y, manufactured at the Gigafactory Berlin, is expected to bring the turnaround. According to the company, in markets where the new model is already available, numbers are stable. However, in Germany, there is little sign of this. Sales continued to decline in May – down to just 1,210 vehicles. In the UK, Tesla dropped to fifth place among electric car providers, and sales in Italy fell by 20 percent. In Austria, the decline recently was around 70 percent.
Bets on an Uncertain Future
While competitors like Waymo are already gaining practical experience, Tesla remains in the announcement phase when it comes to robotaxis. Whether the company will manage the technical curve – or remain stuck in its own high expectations – is likely to be decided over the course of this year.
A lot is at stake for Elon Musk. Not only the future of Tesla but also his claim to be perceived as a technological leader. If results continue to be lacking, the company may find it necessary to refocus its priorities. Until then, the robotaxi remains a gamble for Musk. Perhaps the last one.
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