Escalation in the Middle East increases crude oil prices – ADAC advises refueling early
The ADAC assumes that the current developments will soon affect fuel prices.
“As a rule, an increase in prices at the pumps does not take long to occur after a significant rise in oil prices,” said ADAC spokesperson Andreas Hölzel.
Oil companies would likely pass the increased crude oil prices on to the end consumers quickly.
The automobile club therefore advises drivers not to wait too long for their next refueling stop. Those who want to refuel at the currently moderate prices should do so soon, Hölzel said. Particularly in the evening hours, more favorable prices can usually be observed.
Price Surge in the Oil Market
On the international oil markets, the reaction to the military escalation was significant. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil for delivery in August peaked at 78.50 US dollars – the highest level since January. Although prices eased somewhat over the course of the day, Brent still closed at 74.73 dollars, about five dollars higher than the previous day's value. A similar trend was seen with the US oil type WTI: after a high of 77.62 dollars, the price was last noted at 73.48 dollars.
The natural gas price also reacted sensitively. On the Amsterdam stock exchange, the benchmark TTF futures contract for European natural gas for delivery in the following month climbed to 38.57 euros per megawatt hour – an increase of over five percent and the highest level since April.
Tense Supply Situation Feared
In addition to the immediate price reactions, analysts are also concerned about the uncertainty regarding further developments. Commerzbank expects that the oil price will be traded with increased risk premiums in the short term. About one-third of the global supply comes from the Gulf region, so the markets react sensitively to the escalation.
Particular attention is paid to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important waterways for global oil trade. A blockade of this strait by Iran – whether as a direct reaction to Israeli attacks or in the wake of further escalations – could significantly tighten the supply situation. Whether Iran's announced retaliatory measures will actually be limited to Israel remains to be seen.
Economic Consequences for Germany
The rising energy prices could also leave economic marks in Germany.
“Private households react particularly sensitively to developments in gasoline and diesel prices,” said Geraldine Dany-Knedlik from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).
These price increases often have a more direct effect on consumer behavior than the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank.
Consumption is a central factor for economic recovery. About half of the economic output in Germany is attributable to private spending. Nevertheless, DIW President Marcel Fratzscher sees internal factors – such as wage development, inflation, or investments – as more decisive for the economic situation.
Despite international risks, Germany remains responsible for actively shaping its economic recovery. Foreign policy developments, such as US trade policy or geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, however, remain a factor of uncertainty. While the impacts on the economy could remain manageable, price increases at the gas station in the coming days are likely. Those who need to fill up their tanks now are advised to do so sooner rather than later – at least according to the sober advice of the ADAC.
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