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Ready to Strike Back: How the EU Plans for Trump's Tariffs
Can the EU still avert new US tariffs on goods from European companies? And if so, how? The answer to this question could affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany alone. Therefore, everything is being done in Brussels to find the best possible strategy in dealing with US President Donald Trump. An overview of the situation:
What is the sentiment in the EU?
Gloomy. In the European Commission, which is responsible for EU trade policy, hardly anyone still believes, after Trump's tariff decisions against Mexico, Canada, and China, that the EU will escape unscathed.
Moreover, Trump said on the topic of tariffs over the weekend: "This will definitely happen to the European Union."
When could the tariffs come?
Originally, there was hope in the EU that there might be time for negotiations until the end of March, because only then is an investigation commissioned by Trump into US trade relations expected to be completed. However, recent developments suggest that it could happen more quickly. Trump recently said on the topic of tariffs against the EU that there is no timeline, but it would happen "pretty soon."
Is the EU prepared for the tariffs?
This question was answered affirmatively at a top EU meeting in Brussels on Monday. According to EU diplomats, the European Commission had prepared possible countermeasures some time ago. In Trump's first term, the EU countered new duties on steel and aluminum products from Europe, among other things, with special tariffs on Bourbon whiskey, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and jeans. How strongly the EU will react this time is said to depend on Trump's specific tariff decision. Additional tariffs of 10 to 20 percent are considered likely.
What could happen after the imposition of tariffs?
In a less severe scenario, Trump could quickly be convinced to temporarily suspend the tariffs in order to begin negotiations. This was recently the case with Mexico and Canada. In the worst-case scenario, a long trade war would ensue, with severe consequences for the economy.
What could be negotiated?
SPD trade expert and Member of the European Parliament Bernd Lange sees several starting points. To reduce the trade deficit criticized by Trump, the EU could import more liquefied natural gas (LNG), military technology, and agricultural goods from the USA. Additionally, it would be possible to reduce import tariffs on US cars, which are currently at ten percent, significantly higher than the US rate of 2.5 percent. A new agreement to expand American LNG exports has already been suggested by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Former Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, who is now Minister for Foreign Trade and Foreign Policy, strongly advocated for negotiations and a united EU front against Trump at an EU meeting in Warsaw on Tuesday. He stated that he had worked with him for years as Prime Minister. His experience was:
“If you are weak, he will eat you up. If you don't negotiate, he will get rid of you.”
What bothers Trump so much about trade with Europe?
Trump wants to strengthen the USA as a production location and reduce the trade deficit with Europe. It is a thorn in his side that European companies sell significantly more goods in the USA than American companies do in the EU.
This mainly concerns Germany: According to the Federal Statistical Office, the USA is as important to local exporters as never before in the past 20 years: Goods worth 157.9 billion euros were exported to the USA in 2023, almost ten percent of German exports.
In reverse, goods worth 94.7 billion euros were imported from the USA in 2023. The result was a German record trade surplus of around 63 billion euros with the USA, according to statisticians. Since 2017, Germany has had higher export surpluses with no other country than with the USA.
How does Brussels see the US trade deficit?
The EU Commission relativizes the numbers. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič pointed out on Tuesday after the EU meeting in Warsaw that while the EU has a surplus of 154 billion euros in goods trade with the USA, the USA has a surplus of 104 billion euros in services trade with the EU.
“This means that the total trade surplus of the EU with the USA is only about three percent of our total trade volume of 1.5 trillion euros - or around 50 billion euros,” he said.
Almost 5 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic depend on this “healthy and robust trade relationship” between the EU and the USA.
What would tariffs mean for the economy?
Tariffs would hit the already struggling automotive industry in Europe hard, especially the German one. For the local economy, which has shrunk for two consecutive years and is expected to grow minimally at best in 2025, tariffs would be a new low blow.
“The US market is very important for the production location Germany,” says Hildegard Müller, President of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA).
Around 400,000 cars from German production went to the USA in 2023 - almost one tenth of the annual production. America is thus the most important export market for manufacturers.
While VW, BMW, and Mercedes operate large plants in the USA, a large number of parts are still supplied from Europe. Porsche even serves the US market entirely from Europe. That could change with new tariffs. According to the “Handelsblatt,” Porsche and Audi are considering producing in the USA. VW recently stopped its planned export of the ID.7 electric sedan from Emden to North America.
The tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been postponed: Is the big trade war now averted?
This is unclear. In return for the postponement of the tariffs, Trump has secured more efforts to protect the borders with Canada and Mexico. The tariffs could take effect a month later or possibly be renegotiated. Meanwhile, additional US tariffs on Chinese imports have been effective since this Tuesday. Trump said they are just a beginning. “If we don’t reach a deal with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial.”
How severe would the consequences be?
The Ifo Institute sees all sides as losers in the case of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. Canada would have to expect a decrease in exports of 28 percent with countermeasures against US tariffs, and Mexico by 35 percent. China, however, could more easily redirect trade away from the USA than its geographical neighbors, says Lisandra Flach, head of the Ifo Center for International Economics. Therefore, China is least affected in the model calculations with a decrease in exports of 3.8 percent.
A big loser would be the USA: Its exports could fall by up to 22 percent in the case of countermeasures, estimates the Ifo. So, a lot is at stake for Trump in a trade war.
```Content automatically translated.
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