Autonomous driving - Mercedes & Co.'s lead is crumbling

With autonomous driving, the German carmakers have so far been well positioned - but the lead threatens to evaporate. This is the result of a study by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach in collaboration with the network equipment supplier Cisco Systems. Above all, manufacturers from China could overtake.

In autonomous driving at Level 3, where the driver can temporarily delegate responsibility to the car, German manufacturers have been well positioned so far. Mercedes-Benz is here a clear innovation leader: As the only manufacturer so far, the brand offers in its S-Class a traffic jam pilot that may take over the steering wheel up to 95 km/h on the highway. BMW belongs to the brands that will follow quickly with the Neue Klasse, launching in 2026.

Advantage through traffic jam pilots

"The German automotive industry currently holds a leading role in Level-3 systems for autonomous driving," said CAM expert Stefan Bratzel, who prepared the study. "But this lead is fragile, especially Chinese manufacturers will soon outpace German innovation power," Bratzel warns. By 2028, Chinese manufacturers are expected to have overtaken the German carmakers in innovation power, Bratzel's forecast.

Nevertheless, the situation in Germany is significantly better than its reputation, according to Bratzel. "We are not as bad as the current mood suggests." But that does not mean the industry should not take the threat from China seriously. "But we must not continually hide our light under a bushel." 

Currently, the Germans' good performance is mainly due to the strength in Level-3 functions. However, this is a rather small niche market. The study, according to it, shows a completely different picture for the currently prevailing Level 2 and 2+ driver-assistance systems, in which the car offers more and more support but does not relieve the driver of responsibility. Here, Chinese manufacturers are already far ahead, led by BYD, Nio, and Xpeng.

China bets on driving assistance 

Since 2022 there has been an enormous rise observed among manufacturers in China. In the country there had been at that time a noticeable shift toward driver assistance - "almost a kind of hype phase," according to Bratzel. Unlike in Germany, partially automated driving in China has long been standard. And U.S. manufacturers such as Tesla and Ford are here also somewhat better positioned than the Europeans. 

Overall, China's share of innovation strength in driving assistance and autonomous driving was 70 percent in 2024, according to the study's result. Germany followed at a clear distance with 14 percent in second place ahead of the USA with 12 percent. In 2016 it had looked very different: 60 percent of the innovation strength in this future topic was then attributed to the German manufacturers.