Driverless competition – will the taxi be left behind in the future of mobility?
But the vision is not greeted with universal enthusiasm—above all, the taxi industry sees risks to its business. For now, everyday life on Munich’s streets looks the same as ever: people get into taxis, buses (mostly) run on schedule, and cars have a driver. But behind the scenes, policymakers and industry have long been working to change this picture. At the IAA, Söder announced that “20,000 self-driving shuttles and 5,000 autonomous buses” are to be operating in Munich in the medium term. Together with Mayor Dieter Reiter, he is relying on new solutions to address driver shortages in public transport and to better connect outlying areas with smaller, more flexible vehicles.
From Bad Birnbach to Upper Franconia – Bavaria tests everyday life without drivers
The technology is not entirely new. Pilot projects have been rolling in Bavaria for years: electric buses in the spa town of Bad Birnbach, autonomous shuttles in the district of Kelheim, model regions in Upper Franconia. In Munich itself, a project called "MINGA" is currently getting underway to gather further experience. Politicians and researchers speak of a "pioneer status."
But while Söder and Reiter are promising big numbers, it remains unclear when the vehicles will actually be on the road in everyday use. The president of the Technical University of Munich, Thomas Hofmann, is urging speed. As long as each project works on its own, the necessary data pool for the advancement of artificial intelligence will be lacking. Countries such as China or the United States are already further along, because large amounts of data are collected there every day.
Rules, laws, limits
Industry is pushing as well. Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, sees enormous potential—not only in local public transport but also in logistics. Test runs by truck manufacturers such as MAN have shown that driver shortages could be offset with autonomous vehicles. But she points to reality: strict regulations, onerous approval procedures, a lack of leeway in day-to-day operations. "In other parts of the world, many things have long been permitted that are still forbidden here," says Söder.
Uber and Momenta – new players on the field
International companies also want to tap into the market. The ride-hailing company Uber has announced, together with the Chinese technology company Momenta, that it will trial autonomous rides in Munich starting in 2026. At first, drivers will still sit in the vehicle to intervene in an emergency. The goal, however, is clear: robotaxis that operate within defined zones entirely without a human on board. In China, that is already a reality – there, Momenta operates several such fleets, including in cooperation with German manufacturers.
A new threat to the taxi industry
For Munich’s taxi operators, all of this sounds like a double risk. Even today, Uber and other platform providers are putting the sector under pressure. If, in future, driverless robotaxis also roll through the city, competition is likely to intensify further. Customers could choose between a regulated, fixed-tariff taxi and a flexible, perhaps cheaper robotaxi. At the same time, it is unclear how the state intends to regulate competition: Do the same obligations apply to autonomous vehicles as to taxis – such as a duty to carry passengers, shift times, or concession fees? As long as that remains unresolved, the vision is just a promise.
Policymakers are touting relief for passengers, new connections for outlying areas, and the chance to showcase Bavaria as an innovation hub. But if the vision of Söder, Müller, Reiter and co. becomes reality, the market will be reshuffled. Global players who – like Uber – are not exactly known for complying with laws and regulations will redefine mobility. Only the taxi industry risks being left behind.
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