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T&E study: 90 percent are not the end of the internal combustion engine.
What consequences this would have, Sebastian Bock of the environmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) calculates in advance – and warns against a deceptive compromise. At first glance, a 90 percent reduction seems reasonable, says Bock.
„Then it becomes clear that this could mean that after 2035 almost every second car could have an internal combustion engine.“
The reason lies in the systematics of the fleet-limit values. To achieve the 90-percent target, manufacturers would have to reduce their average emissions to 11 grams CO₂ per kilometer. Plug-in hybrids could play a key role in this.
If one assumes that these vehicles will be officially rated at 25 grams CO₂ per kilometer by 2035 and at the same time the so-called utilization factor – i.e., the assumed share of electric driving – is further weakened, manufacturers would have a wide margin. According to calculations by T&E, they could sell up to 46 percent plug-in hybrids and still meet the EU targets.
Gap between theory and practice
The problem, from the environmental organization's point of view, lies in the gap between theory and practice. A T&E analysis of real driving data from more than 100,000 plug-in hybrids shows that their actual emissions in everyday life are almost five times higher than the official figures used to calculate target achievement.
"In other words: A target of 90 percent for 2035 may seem reasonable, but could have catastrophic consequences for the climate (and lead the industry down the wrong path, as it would continue to invest in a technological dead end)," warns Bock.
Politically, however, a course correction is already emerging. The European Commission intends to soon propose to open up a perspective beyond 2035 for vehicles with a combined electric and combustion engine. Instead of a reduction of 100 percent, the emissions of new cars would then fall by only 90 percent. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has, according to information from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, assured the EPP chairman Manfred Weber (CSU) of this.
About the "combustion-engine ban"?
Originally it was planned to no longer approve new fossil-powered passenger cars from 2035. In practice, that would have boiled down to battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen propulsion, which is why the EU "combustion-engine ban" is often spoken of. The now-expected deviation from this course, however, is contingent on conditions: The automotive sector must collectively save as many emissions as would be achieved by a complete ban on internal combustion engines. This could be achieved, for example, through the use of climate-friendly green steel in production or through biofuels.
Nevertheless, a red line is drawn by von der Leyen. Pure combustion engines should have no future either going forward. New cars with exclusively fossil propulsion should not be approved after 2035. Germany's demands for a separate category for "highly efficient combustion engines" are thus rejected by the Commission. It remains open, however, what prospects vehicles with combustion engines will have after 2040. According to media reports, the fleet limits for 2035 are to be reviewed again.
For the taxi and rental-car sector, which must plan for the long term, the situation remains unclear. What is certain, however: the decision between 90 or 100 percent is more than a number—it determines which propulsion technologies will actually play a role on the streets of tomorrow.
Content automatically translated.
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